Wednesday 27 July 2011
Tuesday 26 July 2011
The US is that largest debtor nation in history - 26th July 2011
In his latest interview with The Wall Street Journal, famed Quantum Fund co-founder and investor Jim Rogers tells it like it is, as usual. Among other choice snippets, Rogers remarks that the current debt talk negotiations are simply a scam and a charade, and are just trying to get publicity. What follows are a few more, and you can view the entire video clip below.
Jim Rogers - The United States Lost Its AAA Rating Long Ago... Who Cares What Moody's Says? 26th july 2011
Is it just me or is Jim on television several times every week lately?
No matter, I'm always willing to watch because he has not often been wrong and he is always entertaining.
I actually just finished re-reading his 2004 book "Hot Commodities" and was surprised to see a reference to already inflated US real estate prices. Rogers was at that time already onto the housing bubble and likely consequences of it in the United States.
With a US default hot and heavy in the news as the CNBC crisis de jour, Rogers spoke yesterday to the WSJ and I've made some notes and attached a link to the video:
- Asked if US Treasuries aren’t still the safe haven, Rogers said this wouldn’t be the first time people have been wrong — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were once viewed as perfectly safe
- Politicians need to do something now to fix the debt situation — there is no waiting until the next election.
- The markets aren’t going to put up with the debt situation in the US much longer, and will cut the US off (meaning higher interest rates required for debt funding)
- He is paying zero attention to what the guys in Washington are doing regarding the debt ceiling, zero, none, zilch.
- They will do something to address the debt ceiling, that is not the worry. We need to be worrying about six months from now.
- Somehow the lady interviewing Jim seemed to take the last comment as reassuring (I guess because Rogers sees the problems six months from now not August 2) so Rogers said “Let me make sure you are clear, I am short the American stock market and I’m short the American bond market.”
- The market doesn’t seriously think August 2 is a problem.
- Rogers is short because the US situation continues to deteriorate, debt has skyrocketed, and the US can’t use debt to get them out the next financial mess.
- 30 years ago Scandinavia went through a problem like the US is facing and bit the bullet, faced up to their debt problems and experienced the pain. Now they have the model economies for the world. Japan did the opposite 20 years ago refusing to let anyone fail and Japan has now lost two decades. America is following Japan down the road to 20 lost years
- Rogers is long gold, agriculture, all commodities, short Treasuries, a large US bank, short US tech stocks, short emerging markets.
Source
No matter, I'm always willing to watch because he has not often been wrong and he is always entertaining.
I actually just finished re-reading his 2004 book "Hot Commodities" and was surprised to see a reference to already inflated US real estate prices. Rogers was at that time already onto the housing bubble and likely consequences of it in the United States.
With a US default hot and heavy in the news as the CNBC crisis de jour, Rogers spoke yesterday to the WSJ and I've made some notes and attached a link to the video:
- Asked if US Treasuries aren’t still the safe haven, Rogers said this wouldn’t be the first time people have been wrong — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were once viewed as perfectly safe
- Politicians need to do something now to fix the debt situation — there is no waiting until the next election.
- The markets aren’t going to put up with the debt situation in the US much longer, and will cut the US off (meaning higher interest rates required for debt funding)
- He is paying zero attention to what the guys in Washington are doing regarding the debt ceiling, zero, none, zilch.
- They will do something to address the debt ceiling, that is not the worry. We need to be worrying about six months from now.
- Somehow the lady interviewing Jim seemed to take the last comment as reassuring (I guess because Rogers sees the problems six months from now not August 2) so Rogers said “Let me make sure you are clear, I am short the American stock market and I’m short the American bond market.”
- The market doesn’t seriously think August 2 is a problem.
- Rogers is short because the US situation continues to deteriorate, debt has skyrocketed, and the US can’t use debt to get them out the next financial mess.
- 30 years ago Scandinavia went through a problem like the US is facing and bit the bullet, faced up to their debt problems and experienced the pain. Now they have the model economies for the world. Japan did the opposite 20 years ago refusing to let anyone fail and Japan has now lost two decades. America is following Japan down the road to 20 lost years
- Rogers is long gold, agriculture, all commodities, short Treasuries, a large US bank, short US tech stocks, short emerging markets.
Source
Jim Rogers: US Leaders are Delusional Over Debt Ratings 26th July 2011
While there is nothing new in the just released Jim Rogers interview with the WSJ, it is always refreshing to hear him tell the truth, which is, of course that “the US has already lost its AAA status. Who cares what Moody’s say.”As for the response: “The market looks ahead: this is not the first time that the market has dealt with the fact that the US is bankrupt.” As for his proclivity to buy long term US debt: “I wouldn’t lend money to the US in US dollars for 30 years at 3%, or 4%, or 5% or you name the interest rate…. I shorted it June 10. I am short the US bond market as we speak.” Great stuff as usual.
Monday 25 July 2011
What the world's best commodity investor is buying now
Jim Rogers believes the fundamentals behind this metal remain compelling
Gold stocks were a hated asset a few months ago.
I'm sure most investors don't remember. After all, the price of gold just touched $1,600 an ounce this week – an all-time high. Most gold stocks have also had a heck of run in July.
But back in a two-week stretch from April through May, the picture was different. Gold stocks were in a violent downtrend.
The pullback in gold stocks was unusual. After all, the price of gold barely budged. Yet, gold stocks corrected more than 12%.
My colleague Jeff Clark used this disconnect to buy gold stocks in his Short Report newsletter. Jeff argued that as long as gold prices remained near record levels, it was just a matter of time before gold stocks snapped back.
He was right. This month, the large-cap gold index is up 12%, outpacing gold's gains.
With gold prices touching new highs and gold stocks bouncing back, should investors take profits?
I asked legendary commodity investor Jim Rogers this question on this week's S&A Investor Podcast. That's our radio-like show, where I interview the market's top hedge-fund managers, economists, and stock analysts. (You can listen to the full interview for free by clicking here.)
Jim and I talked about the dollar (he is long as a short-term trade right now), how he invests in commodities, and the recent move higher in gold prices.
Jim said he hasn't sold any of his gold. In fact, he just added to his position last week.
Jim believes the fundamentals behind gold remain compelling... Demand from China and India is surging. Due to our reckless spending habits, the dollar will be worth nothing more than confetti. Plus, there is little supply of the metal.
Conventional wisdom tells us we should buy assets low and sell high. But Jim Rogers, the smartest person in the room, continues to buy gold with the price up 100% in two years.
If Jim's right and gold prices push higher, margins for gold producers will soar. The cash cost for most major companies to produce an ounce of gold is less than $500. Just imagine the earnings these companies will report if gold prices push past $2,000 an ounce.
I would think twice about selling your gold stocks on this short-term rally. In fact, it may be a good idea to add to your gold positions right now.
The U.S. Already Has Lost AAA Rating
Has the U.S. already lost its AAA credit rating?
With debt ceiling talks ground to a halt, Kelly Evans put that question to famed investor Jim Rogers. His answer? An emphatic yes.
“Everyone already knows that the U.S. has lost its AAA status,” Rogers said. “Anyone who knows what is going on, already knows that the U.S. is now the biggest debtor nation in the history of the world. It’s only S&P and Moody’s that haven’t figured out what is going on. The investment world knows that the U.S. is not AAA.”
Rogers also called the current debt negotiations in Washington a political “charade.”
“I don’t expect them to have real spending cuts. They have been talking about this for 40 years, talking about how they are going to solve the problem of the deficit. Remember the Grace Commission? Remember the Gramm-Rudman act? The Gramm-Rudman act said we couldn’t have deficit spending 25 years ago. They forgot about that.”
Source
With debt ceiling talks ground to a halt, Kelly Evans put that question to famed investor Jim Rogers. His answer? An emphatic yes.
“Everyone already knows that the U.S. has lost its AAA status,” Rogers said. “Anyone who knows what is going on, already knows that the U.S. is now the biggest debtor nation in the history of the world. It’s only S&P and Moody’s that haven’t figured out what is going on. The investment world knows that the U.S. is not AAA.”
Rogers also called the current debt negotiations in Washington a political “charade.”
“I don’t expect them to have real spending cuts. They have been talking about this for 40 years, talking about how they are going to solve the problem of the deficit. Remember the Grace Commission? Remember the Gramm-Rudman act? The Gramm-Rudman act said we couldn’t have deficit spending 25 years ago. They forgot about that.”
Source
Jim Rogers interview with the WSJ 25th July 2011
While there is nothing new in the just released Jim Rogers interview with the WSJ, it is always refreshing to hear him tell the truth, which is, of course that "the US has already lost its AAA status. Who cares what Moody's say." As for the response: "The market looks ahead: this is not the first time that the market has dealt with the fact that the US is bankrupt." As for his proclivity to buy long term US debt: "I wouldn't lend money to the US in US dollars for 30 years at 3%, or 4%, or 5% or you name the interest rate.... I shorted it June 10. I am short the US bond market as we speak." Great stuff as usual.
Notes from Jim Roger's presentation on July 21, 2011
Here are my notes from the event, Jim Rogers spoke for about 20 minutes before doing Q+A for about an hour. He kept having to deflect hot tip type questions. I think he has a very good memory, as he remembered one Q+A person from another presentation a couple of years back. Also, prior to the presentation I heard him ask another attendee about his mother whom Jim had met once before.
On being successful- “Find your passion, focus and persevere”. He was fortunate enough to discover Wall Street when everyone else thought it was a backwater. He loved the game and would have worked for free if he could have afforded it. As it turned out, it paid very well and he was able to “buy his freedom”.
He said the financial market has had its run, and for young people to get involved in farming and mining as there are shortages in both.
On thinking differently– Don’t just listen to people, investigate for yourself. Do the homework and learn the truth about a situation on the ground if possible, and from many different sources. He is raising his children to be independent thinkers.
On hot tips- He won’t give any! Need to do the work yourself or you won’t understand when to sell.
On having kids- “Get on with it!” Best thing he’s ever done.
On the US Dollar- "It’s a terribly flawed currency". But everyone including Jim Rogers is down on it, and when everyone goes one way, it’s often the case that the opposite actually happens. So he’s long US dollar.
On the Yen- Says he's done well with it and it may have a little more to go.
On China- Still very bullish on China. They have had 5 major leadership positions in world history. No other country can claim this, Rome was 1x, Britain was 1x and the US will most likely be 1x. China has proven itself over the long term- although they also have periods of destruction.
On gold and Silver- still likes them both. Thinks Silver has more chance to appreciate as its farther behind its all time high whereas gold has already hit it.
On commodities- Still in a bull market for commodities. Hard assets will continue to do well. He’s an advisor for a European firm that’s buying land in Brazil to farm.
On the US vs. other places- Go to where the money is. The US is now the worlds greatest debtor nation. You should go to where the creditors are. No one ever said, "They owe a lot money lets go there". Everyone's family moved to Singapore at some point- they shouldn't be afraid to move to a more opportune location if needed.
What Jim Rogers is shorting- technologies and a major US bank.
http://www.gurufocus.com/news/139553/notes-from-jim-rogers-presentation-on-july-21-2011
On being successful- “Find your passion, focus and persevere”. He was fortunate enough to discover Wall Street when everyone else thought it was a backwater. He loved the game and would have worked for free if he could have afforded it. As it turned out, it paid very well and he was able to “buy his freedom”.
He said the financial market has had its run, and for young people to get involved in farming and mining as there are shortages in both.
On thinking differently– Don’t just listen to people, investigate for yourself. Do the homework and learn the truth about a situation on the ground if possible, and from many different sources. He is raising his children to be independent thinkers.
On hot tips- He won’t give any! Need to do the work yourself or you won’t understand when to sell.
On having kids- “Get on with it!” Best thing he’s ever done.
On the US Dollar- "It’s a terribly flawed currency". But everyone including Jim Rogers is down on it, and when everyone goes one way, it’s often the case that the opposite actually happens. So he’s long US dollar.
On the Yen- Says he's done well with it and it may have a little more to go.
On China- Still very bullish on China. They have had 5 major leadership positions in world history. No other country can claim this, Rome was 1x, Britain was 1x and the US will most likely be 1x. China has proven itself over the long term- although they also have periods of destruction.
On gold and Silver- still likes them both. Thinks Silver has more chance to appreciate as its farther behind its all time high whereas gold has already hit it.
On commodities- Still in a bull market for commodities. Hard assets will continue to do well. He’s an advisor for a European firm that’s buying land in Brazil to farm.
On the US vs. other places- Go to where the money is. The US is now the worlds greatest debtor nation. You should go to where the creditors are. No one ever said, "They owe a lot money lets go there". Everyone's family moved to Singapore at some point- they shouldn't be afraid to move to a more opportune location if needed.
What Jim Rogers is shorting- technologies and a major US bank.
http://www.gurufocus.com/news/139553/notes-from-jim-rogers-presentation-on-july-21-2011
Friday 22 July 2011
Jim Rogers - Time to buy the USD
Jim Rogers, the legendary investor (called the bottom on EUR/USD last June 2010), was quoted earlier today: “I bought Japanese shares when the tsunami came, I think I am probably going to buy some more. I own the U.S. Dollar. It has been terribly beaten down. Everybody is bearish on the U.S Dollar including me. It’s fundamentally a terribly flawed currency. But when everybody is bearish on something it is usually a time to own it.”http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=9c991fe0-da07-4b5c-85e7-357d3a84e845
Thursday 21 July 2011
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